What is Vertex Energy Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Vertex Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Vertex Energy (Vertex Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1331 Gemini Street, Suite 250, Houston, TX, USA, 77058
Vertex Energy Inc is an environmental services company that recycles industrial waste streams and off-specification commercial chemical products. Its operating segments are Refining and Marketing, and Recovery. The company generates maximum revenue from the Refining and Marketing segment. The company collects used oil from businesses such as oil change service stations, automotive repair shops, petroleum refineries, and petrochemical manufacturing operations.
Executives
| Christopher Allen Stratton |
director |
1331 GEMINI STREET, #250, HOUSTON TX 77058 |
| Alvaro Ruiz |
officer: Chief Strategy Officer |
86 S KNIGHTS CROSSING DR, THE WOODLANDS TX 77382 |
| James Gary Rhame |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
2601 RYDER COURT, LEAGUE CITY TX 77573 |
| Benjamin P Cowart |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO AND PRESIDENT |
2506 DEEP OAK COURT, HOUSTON TX 77059 |
| Douglas Scott Haugh |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
865 DUNHAM STREET, DANIEL ISLAND SC 29492 |
| Karen Kay Maston |
director |
3770 OLYMPIA DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77019 |
| Odeh Khoury |
director |
6 GREYTON LN, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| David L Phillips |
director |
P.O. BOX 37167, HOUSTON TX 77237 |
| John Noel Strickland |
officer: COO |
2030 ASHTON WAY, BAINBRIDGE GA 39819 |
| Timothy C Harvey |
director |
15 COLONEL WINSTEAD DRIVE, BRENTWOOD TN 37027 |
| James P Gregory |
director |
1225 EYE STREET NW SUITE 900, WASHINGTON DC 22209 |
| David Peel |
officer: COO |
1427 SHELL FISH CT., MT. PLEASANT SC 29466 |
| Dan Borgen |
director |
9500 NEW CENTURY, PASADENA TX 77507 |
| Matthew Lieb |
officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER |
13500 EVENING CREEK DRIVE #440, SAN DIEGO CA 92128 |
| Chris Carlson |
officer: CFO AND SECRETARY |
4418 CEDAR RIDGE TRAIL, HOUSTON TX 77059 |
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