GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Vantage Drilling Co (OTCPK:VTGDF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Vantage Drilling Co (Vantage Drilling Co) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

What is Vantage Drilling Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vantage Drilling Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Vantage Drilling Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vantage Drilling Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Vantage Drilling Co (Vantage Drilling Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Vantage Drilling Co (OTCPK:VTGDF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02188 HKSE:03919 HKSE:00709 HKSE:01723 HKSE:00970 HKSE:02023 HKSE:00684 HKSE:01598 HKSE:01501 HKSE:00828 HP SHSE:600871 PTEN RIG NE OCSE:DRLCO OSL:SDRL NBR ADX:ADNOCDRILL TSX:PD
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
777 Post Oak Boulevard, Suite 800, Houston, TX, USA, 77056
Website
Vantage Drilling Co is an international offshore drilling contractor for the oil and gas industry focused on operating a fleet of modern, high-specification mobile offshore drilling units.
Executives
Steven M Bradshaw director 7802 OVERBROOK LANE, HOUSTON TX 77063
Duke R Ligon director 2800 WEST COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE, SUITE E, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73116
Hsin-chi Su director, 10 percent owner C/O TMT CO., LTD. 8TH FL., NO. 126, SEC. 1, JIANGUO N. RD. TAIPEI F5 ROC
George Esaka director C/O VANTAGE DRILLING COMPANY 777 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 610 HOUSTON TX 77056
Ong Tian Khiam director C/O VANTAGE DRILLING COMPANY 777 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 610 HOUSTON TX 77056
Oleary John C G director C/O TECHNIPFMC PLC, HADRIAN HOUSE, WINCOMBLEE ROAD, NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE X0 NE6 3PL
Marcelo D Guiscardo director 5205 N OCONNOR BLVD, SUITE 900, IRVING TX 75039
Jorge E Estrada director 5847 SAN FELIPE ST STE 3300 HOUSTON TX 77057
Paul A Bragg director, officer: Chairman & CEO
Douglas G Smith officer: CFO 5847 SAN FELIPE SUITE 3300 HOUSTON TX 77057
Edward G Brantley officer: Chief Accounting Officer 4813 ELM STREET BELLAIRE TX 77401
John Robert Russell director 6435 VANDERBILT STREET HOUSTON TX 77005
Christopher G Declaire director, officer: VP & Secretary 6435 VANDERBILT STREET HOUSTON TX 77005
Douglas Halkett officer: COO 777 POST OAK BLVD. SUITE 610 HOUSTON TX 77056
Steinar Thomassen director C/O VANTAGE DRILLING COMPANY 777 POST OAK BOULEVARD, SUITE 610 HOUSTON TX 77056

Vantage Drilling Co (Vantage Drilling Co) Headlines

No Headlines