Vista Outdoor (Vista Outdoor) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Vista Outdoor Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vista Outdoor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Vista Outdoor Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vista Outdoor's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Vista Outdoor (Vista Outdoor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Vista Outdoor Inc (NYSE:VSTO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5VO:Germany 5VO:Germany

Address

1 Vista Way, Anoka, MN, USA, 55303

Website

https://www.vistaoutdoor.com

Vista Outdoor Inc designs, develops, and manufactures outdoor sports and recreation products, and is domiciled in the United States. The company organizes itself into two segments: Shooting sports and Outdoor products. Shooting sports, which contributes the largest proportion of company revenue, includes ammunition, long guns, and related equipment under brands such as Federal Premium, Blackhawk, and Hoppe's. Outdoor products include archery and hunting accessories, eyewear, golf products, hydration products, and stand-up paddle boards under brands including CamelBak and Bushnell. The company derives the vast majority of revenue domestically.

Executives

Gary L Mcarthur	director	HARRIS CORPORATION, 1025 W. NASA BOULEVARD, MELBOURNE FL 32919
Yun Jung Choi	officer: VP, GC & Corp Secretary	C/O BOXED, INC., 451 BROADWAY, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Eric Nyman	officer: CEO	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Michael D Robinson	director	1291 5TH AVE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94122
Jason R Vanderbrink	officer: President, Ammunition	900 BOB EHLEN DRIVE, ANOKA MN 55303
Jeffrey Ehrich	officer: GC & Corp Secretary - Interim	656 EVANS COURT, SHOREVIEW MN 55126
Andrew Keegan	officer: Interim CFO	4035 DAHL RD, MOUND MN 55364
Kelly L Reisdorf	officer: Chief Comms & IR Officer	1 VISTA WAY, ANOKA MN 55303
Bruce Grooms	director	C/O EMCORE CORPORATION, 2015 CHESTNUT ST., ALHAMBRA CA 91803
Gerard Gibbons	director	616 GLENOVER DRIVE, MILTON GA 30004
Christopher T Metz	director, officer: CEO	BLACK & DECKER CORP, 701 EAST JOPPA ROAD, TOWSON MD 21286
Dylan Scott Ramsey	officer: VP,General Counsel & Secretary	1 VISTA WAY, ANOKA MN 55303
Sudhanshu Shekhar Priyadarshi	officer: SVP & CFO	6425 HALL OF FAME LANE, FRISCO TX 75034
Robert M Tarola	director	1101 30TH STREET, NW, SUITE 500, WASHINGTON DC 20007
Mark A. Gottfredson	director	938 UNIVERSITY PARK BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, CLEARFIELD UT 84015