Viridian Therapeutics (Viridian Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Viridian Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Viridian Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Viridian Therapeutics (Viridian Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Viridian Therapeutics Inc (NAS:VRDN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1S1:Germany

Address

221 Crescent Street, Suite 401, Waltham, MA, USA, 02453

Website

https://www.viridiantherapeutics.com

Viridian Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that engages in developing multiple product candidates to treat patients who suffer from thyroid eye disease. Its product candidate VRDN-001 is an insulin-like growth factor-1 receptor (IGF-1R) monoclonal antibody (mAb) being developed for the potential treatment for patients with thyroid eye disease.

Executives

Stephen F. Mahoney	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS, LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Thomas W. Beetham	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS, LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Sarah Gheuens	director	C/O AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 88 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Seth Harmon	officer: See Remarks	C/O VIRIDIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 221 CRESCENT STREET, SUITE 401, WALTHAM MA 02453
Lara Meisner	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O VIRIDIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 203 CRESCENT STREET, BLDG. 17, SUITE 102, WALTHAM MA 02453
Scott Dunseth Myers	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CASCADIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3101 WESTERN AVE., SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98121
Jonathan Violin	officer: President and COO	955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Barrett Katz	officer: Chief Medical Officer	6200 LOOKOUT ROAD, C/O MIRAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., BOULDER CO 80301
Fairmount Healthcare Fund Gp Llc	director, other: See Remarks	2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2500, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Carrie Melvin	officer: COO	C/O VIRIDIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 203 CRESCENT STREET, BLDG 17, SUITE 102B, WALTHAM MA 02453
Frazier Life Sciences Public Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	TWO UNION SQUARE, 601 UNION ST., SUITE 3200, SEATTLE WA 98101
L.p. Fhmlsp,	10 percent owner	C/O FRAZIER HEALTHCARE PARTNERS, 601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, SEATTLE WA 98101
Fhmlsp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O FRAZIER HEALTHCARE PARTNERS, 601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, SEATTLE WA 98101
Kristian Humer	officer: CFO and CBO	C/O VIRIDIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6200 LOOKOUT ROAD, BOULDER CO 80301
Jennifer K. Moses	director	79 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4501 RESEARCH COMMONS, SUITE 100, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709