Viking Therapeutics (Viking Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Viking Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Viking Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Viking Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Viking Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Viking Therapeutics (Viking Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Viking Therapeutics Inc (NAS:VKTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1VT:Germany 1VT:Germany

Address

9920 Pacific Heights Boulevard, Suite 350, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.vikingtherapeutics.com

Viking Therapeutics Inc is a healthcare service provider. The company specializes in the area of biopharmaceutical development focused on metabolic and endocrine disorders. The company's clinical program pipeline consists of VK2809, VK5211, VK0214 products. VK2809 and VK0214 are orally available, tissue and receptor-subtype selective agonists of the thyroid hormone receptor beta. VK5211 is an orally available, non-steroidal selective androgen receptor modulator.

Executives

Sarah Kathryn Rouan	director	4995 BRADENTON AVENUE, SUITE 240, DUBLIN OH 43017
Greg Zante	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SANGAMO BIOSCIENCES, INC STE-A-100, POINT RICHMOND TECH, 501 CANAL BLVD,, RICHMOND CA 94804
Rowland Charles A Jr	director	3338 LANCASHIRE RD, FURLONG PA 18925
Lawson Macartney	director	C/O AMBRX, INC., 10975 N. TORREY PINES RD., LA JOLLA CA 92037
Brian Lian	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O SEELOS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 300 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Marianna Mancini	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O VIKING THERAPEUTICS, INC., 12340 EL CAMINO REAL, STE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Matthew W Foehr	director	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES RD #200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc	10 percent owner	3911 SORRENTO VALLEY BLVD, SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Hiroko Masamune	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O VIKING THERAPEUTICS, INC., 12340 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Michael Morneau	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TRIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6410 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
J Matthew Singleton	director	286 STANWICH ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Stephen W Webster	director	C/O OPTIMER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 101 HUDSON STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 07302
Rochelle Hanley	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O VIKING THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 50, SAN DIEGO CA 92037
Michael Dinerman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O VIKING THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 50, SAN DIEGO CA 92037