Viveve Medical (Viveve Medical) Predictability Rank

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What is Viveve Medical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Viveve Medical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Viveve Medical (Viveve Medical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Viveve Medical Inc (OTCPK:VIVE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

345 Inverness Drive South, Building B, Suite 250, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112

Website

https://www.viveve.com

Viveve Medical Inc designs, develops, manufactures and markets a platform medical technology. Its Cryogen-cooled Monopolar Radiofrequency technology is delivered through a radiofrequency generator, handpiece and treatment tip, called the Viveve System. The Viveve System is for the non-invasive treatment of vaginal introital laxity, sexual function, vaginal rejuvenation, and stress urinary incontinence. The Viveve System is indicated for use and being marketed for use in general surgical procedures for electrocoagulation and hemostasis in the United States. It has a business presence in the US, Asia Pacific, Canada, Europe and Middle East and Latin America.

Executives

Presnell Sharon Collins	director	6275 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Wilmot B. Harkey	10 percent owner	C/O NANTAHALA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 130 MAIN ST. 2ND FLOOR, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Daniel Mack	10 percent owner	C/O NANTAHALA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 130 MAIN ST. 2ND FLOOR, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Nantahala Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	130 MAIN ST., 2ND FLOOR, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Karen L. Zaderej	director	AXOGEN INC., 13859 PROGRESS BLVD, SUITE 100, ALACHUA FL 32615
Steven L Basta	director	1875 S GRANT STREET SUITE 110, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Scott Durbin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PO BOX 376, ANN ARBOR MI 48106
James G. Atkinson	officer: CBO & President	150 COMMERCIAL STREET, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Patricia Scheller	director, officer: CEO and Director	150 COMMERCIAL STREET, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Jon M Plexico	director, 10 percent owner	16430 N SCOTTSDALE RD 450, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Stonepine Capital Management, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	919 NW BOND STREET, SUITE 204, BEND OR 97703
Timothy P Lynch	director, 10 percent owner	919 NW BOND STREET, SUITE 204, BEND OR 97703
Daniel Janney	director, 10 percent owner	PO BOX 7414, JACKSON WY 83002