Fresh Vine Wine (Fresh Vine Wine) Predictability Rank

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What is Fresh Vine Wine Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fresh Vine Wine Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fresh Vine Wine (Fresh Vine Wine) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Alcoholic » Fresh Vine Wine Inc (AMEX:VINE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11500 Wayzata Blvd, No.1147, Minnetonka, MN, USA, 55305

Website

https://www.freshvinewine.com

Fresh Vine Wine Inc is a producer of low carb, low calorie premium wines in the United States. The company's wine collection features a California Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, Chardonnay, California Rose wine, and a Limited Reserve Napa Cabernet.

Executives

Css Llc/il	10 percent owner	175 WEST JACKSON BLVD, SUITE 440, CHICAGO IL 60604
Hitesh Dheri	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	11500 WAYZATA BLVD. #1147, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Keith J Johnson	officer: Interim Chief Financial Ofcr	56 REDBAY ROAD, ELGIN SC 29045
Roger C. Cockroft	officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	11500 WAYZATA BLVD., SUITE 1147, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Damian Novak	director, 10 percent owner, other: Executive Chairman	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Michelle Hawkins	director	1075 ATLAS PEAK RD, NAPA CA 94558
Janelle Denise Anderson	director, officer: CEO	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
James F. Spellmire	officer: Interim Chief Financial Office	9624 WYOMING TERRACE, BLOOMINGTON MN 55438
Ellen Scipta	officer: CFO	C/O INTRICON CORPORATION, 1260 RED FOX ROAD, ARDEN HILLS MN 55112
David Yacullo	director	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Nechio & Novak, Llc	10 percent owner	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Brad Yacullo	director	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Rick Nechio	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Elliot Savoie	officer: Chief Financial Officer	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Eric Doan	director	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, SUITE 255, PLYMOUTH MN 55441