Vigil Neuroscience (Vigil Neuroscience) Predictability Rank

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What is Vigil Neuroscience Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vigil Neuroscience Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vigil Neuroscience (Vigil Neuroscience) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vigil Neuroscience Inc (NAS:VIGL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Forge Road, Suite 700, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://www.vigilneuro.com

Vigil Neuroscience Inc is a microglia-focused therapeutics company treating both rare and common neurodegenerative diseases by restoring the vigilance of microglia, the sentinel cells of the brain's immune system. It is utilizing the tools of modern neuroscience drug development across multiple therapeutic modalities to rapidly deliver precision-based therapies to improve the lives of patients and families.

Executives

Ivana Magovcevic-liebisch	director, officer: President and CEO	300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Christopher Silber	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O VIGIL NEUROSCIENCE, INC., 100 FORGE ROAD, SUITE 700, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Budd Haeberlein Samantha L.	director	VIGIL NEUROSCIENCE, INC., 100 FORGE ROAD, SUITE 700, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Gray David L. F.	officer: Chief Science Officer	VIGIL NEUROSCIENCE, INC., 100 FORGE ROAD, SUITE 700, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Spyridon Papapetropoulos	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ADAMAS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1900 POWELL ST., SUITE 1000, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Suzanne Louise Bruhn	director	C/O AEGLEA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 901 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 250, AUSTIN TX 78746
Clay Thorp	director	C/O HATTERAS VENTURE PARTNERS III, LP, 280 S. MANGUM ST., SUITE 350, DURHAM NC 27701
Evan Thackaberry	officer: SVP, Head of Early Development	VIGIL NEUROSCIENCE, INC., 300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jennifer Lynn Ziolkowski	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SOLID BIOSCIENCES, LLC, 141 PORTLAND STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Christopher Verni	officer: General Counsel	VIGIL NEUROSCIENCE, INC., 1 BROADWAY, 7TH FLOOR, SUITE 07-300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Mary Thistle	director	C/O VIACELL, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Vida Ventures Gp Iii, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	455 MARKET STREET, SUITE 1420, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Northpond Ventures Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	7500 OLD GEORGETOWN ROAD, SUITE 850, BETHESDA MD 20814
Stefan Vitorovic	director	C/O PRAXIS PRECISION MEDICINES, INC., ONE BROADWAY, 16TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Bruce Booth	director	890 WINTER STREET, SUITE 320, WALTHAM MA 02451