Viela Bio (Viela Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Viela Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Viela Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Viela Bio (Viela Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Viela Bio Inc (NAS:VIE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One MedImmune Way, First Floor, Area Two, Gaithersburg, MD, USA, 20878

Website

https://www.vielabio.com

Viela Bio Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company engaged in developing and commercializing transformative treatments for severe inflammation and autoimmune diseases. Its product inebilizumab, is a humanized monoclonal antibody, designed to target CD19, a molecule expressed on the surface of a broad range of immune system B cells.

Executives

Chris Nolet	director	C/O REVANCE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 7555 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, NEWARK CA 94560
Rachelle Suzanne Jacques	director	C/O CORBUS PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS, INC, 100 RIVER RIDGE DRIVE, NORWOOD MA 02062
Edward Hu	director	10975 TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Boyu Capital General Partner Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	SUITE 1518, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Boyu Capital General Partner Iii, Ltd.	10 percent owner	SUITE 1518, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Boyu Capital Group Holdings Ltd.	10 percent owner	SUITE 1518, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Xyxy Holdings Ltd.	10 percent owner	SUITE 1518, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Boyu Capital Investment Management Ltd	10 percent owner	SUITE 1501, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Boundless Meadow Ltd	10 percent owner	SUITE 1518, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Xiaomeng Tong	director, 10 percent owner	SUITE 1518, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Yanling Cao	director, 10 percent owner	SUITE 1518, TWO PACIFIC PLACE 88 QUEENSWAY HONG KONG K3 00000
Boyu Capital Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE GRAND CAYMAN E9 KYL-1104
Boyu Capital Opportunities Master Fund	10 percent owner	CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE 27 HOSPITAL ROAD, GEORGE TOWN CAYMAN ISLANDS E9 KY1-9008
Zhengbin Yao	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	10301 STELLA LINK ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77025
William Ragatz	officer: VP, Head of Commercial	C/O VIELA BIO, INC., ONE MEDIMMUNE WAY FIRST FLOOR, AREA TWO GAITHERSBURG MD 20878