Video Display (Video Display) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Video Display Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Video Display Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Video Display Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Video Display's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Video Display (Video Display) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Video Display Corp (OTCPK:VIDE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5155 King Street, Cocoa, FL, USA, 32926

Website

https://www.videodisplay.com

Video Display Corp is a provider and manufacturer of video products, components, and systems for the visual display and presentation of electronic information media in a range of requirements and environments. It designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, distributes, and installs display products and systems, from basic components to systems, for Government, military, aerospace, medical, industrial, and commercial organizations. The company operates in one segment which is simulation, training, and display products. Its products lines include Dome Aircraft Simulator Display Systems, Multi-Faceted Aircraft Simulator Display Systems, Video Walls for Broadcast and Control Centers, Rugged Flat Panel Displays and Computers, Projector and Monitor Upgrades, and Projection Screens.

Executives

Ronald D Ordway	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	1868 TUCKER INDL RD, TUCKER GA 30084
Jonathan R Ordway	10 percent owner
David Saunders Cooper	director	2476 OLDFIELD ROAD NW, ATLANTA GA 30327
Lusby Roger Winfield Iii	director	5604 BAHIA MAR CIRCLE, STONE MOUNTAIN GA 30087
Gregory Lee Osborn	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	1374 CARRINGTON WAY, LAWRENCEVILLE GA 30044
David Allen Heiden	officer: President & COO	6078 WINDSONG WAY, STONE MOUNTAIN GA 30087
Ervin Kuczogi	director	P O BOX 353, WHITE MILLS PA 18473
Michael Delen Boyd	officer: CFO	1451 BEVERLY DRIVE, ATHENS GA 30606
Thibeault Ernest Joseph Iii	director	603 OLD MAMMOTH ROAD, LONDONDERRY NH 03053
Carolyn C Howard	director	279 MOUNTAIN ROAD, JAFFREY NH 03452
Carleton E Sawyer	director	C/O VIDEO DISPLAY CORP, 13 PINE RIDGE RD, LOUDON NH 03307-0830
Murray G Fox	director, officer: CEO - Fox International, Ltd
Carol D Franklin	officer: CFO
Peter Frend	director	1107 LIBERTY SQUARE RD, BOXBOROUGH MA 01719