Vector Group (Vector Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Vector Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vector Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vector Group (Vector Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Vector Group Ltd (NYSE:VGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VGR:Germany

Address

4400 Biscayne Boulevard, 10th Floor, Miami, FL, USA, 33137

Website

https://www.vectorgroupltd.com

Vector Group Ltd is a holding company whose subsidiaries--Liggett Group, Vector Tobacco, and New Valley-- primarily sell tobacco products and invest in real estate. The Liggett Group and Vector Tobacco subsidiaries sell cigarettes, primarily in the discount segment, in the United States under brand names Eagle 20's, Pyramid, Grand Prix, Liggett Select, and Eve. New Valley, through its majority ownership in Douglas Elliman Realty, invests in real estate worldwide. It also operates the largest residential brokerage company in the New York City area and has additional operations in South Florida, Beverly Hills, Aspen, and Connecticut. Tobacco accounts for more than half of total company revenue; real estate makes up the remainder.

Executives

Bennett S Lebow	director	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, 10TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Kirkland J Bryant Iii	officer: VP, Treasurer & CFO	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, 10TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Richard Lampen	officer: EVP	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD.; 10TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Ronald J Bernstein	director, officer: President Subsidiary	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, 10TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Paul V Carlucci	director	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, C/O VECTOR GROUP LTD., MIAMI FL 33137
Wilson White	director	C/O VECTOR GROUP LTD, 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD; 10TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
James D Ballard	officer: See Remarks	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD., TENTH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Nicholas P Anson	officer: President Subsidiary	C/0 LIGGETT VECTOR BRANDS LLC, 3800 PARAMOUNT PARKWAY, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Frost Phillip Md Et Al	10 percent owner	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, MIAMI FL 33137-3227
Howard M Lorber	director, officer: President and CEO	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, 10TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33137
Barry Watkins	director	4400 BISCAYNE BLVD, C/O VECTOR GROUP LTD., MIAMI FL 33137
Jeffrey Podell	director	7338 FLORANADA WAY, DELRAY BEACH FL 33446
Henry C Beinstein	director	8 DOGWOOD LANE, LARCHMONT NY 10538-3418
Stanley Samuel Arkin	director	750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, FLOOR 25, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jean E Sharpe	director