Vera Therapeutics (Vera Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Vera Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vera Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vera Therapeutics (Vera Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vera Therapeutics Inc (NAS:VERA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8000 Marina Boulevard, Suite 120, Brisbane, CA, USA, 94005

Website

https://www.veratx.com

Vera Therapeutics Inc is a clinical stage biotechnology company. It is focused on developing and commercializing transformative treatments for patients with serious immunological diseases. The company's lead product candidate is atacicept, a fusion protein self-administered as a subcutaneous injection once weekly that blocks both B lymphocyte stimulator and a proliferation-inducing ligand, which stimulate B cells and plasma cells to produce autoantibodies contributing to certain autoimmune diseases.

Executives

Commodore Capital Lp	10 percent owner	444 MADISON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Marshall Fordyce	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O VERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8000 MARINA BOULEVARD, SUITE 120, BRISBANE CA 94005
Celia Lin	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O VERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8000 MARINA BOULEVARD, SUITE 120, BRISBANE CA 94005
Joanne Curley	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 343 ALLERTON AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Sean Grant	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O VERA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 8000 MARINA BOULEVARD, SUITE 120, BRISBANE CA 94005
Beth C Seidenberg	director
Sofinnova Management X-a, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sofinnova Venture Partners X, L.p.	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Longitude Capital Partners Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Longitude Prime Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Longitude Prime Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	2740 SAND HILL ROAD, 2ND FLOOR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Patrick G Enright	director, 10 percent owner	CO LONGITUDE CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC, 800 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Llp Abingworth	10 percent owner	38 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6DN
Abingworth Bioventures 8 Lp	10 percent owner	38 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6DN
Carlyle Group Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004