Minerva Surgical (Minerva Surgical) Predictability Rank

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What is Minerva Surgical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Minerva Surgical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Minerva Surgical (Minerva Surgical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Minerva Surgical Inc (OTCPK:UTRS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4255 Burton Drive, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95054

Website

https://www.minervasurgical.com

Minerva Surgical Inc is a medical device company that develops therapeutic devices that treat abnormal uterine bleeding in a minimally invasive manner. The Company operates and manages its business as one reportable and operating segment, which is the business of research, development, and sale of therapeutic devices for abnormal uterine bleeding treatment.

Executives

Daniel Cohen	director	C/O ACCELMED, 848 BRICKELL AVE, #901, MIAMI FL 33131
Accelmed Partners Ii L.p.	10 percent owner	2875 NE 191ST, SUITE 500, AVENTURA FL 33180
New Enterprise Associates 13 Lp	10 percent owner	1119 ST PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Uri Geiger	director, 10 percent owner	221 LATHROP WAY, SUITE I, SACRAMENTO CA 95815
Todd Usen	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MINERVA SURGICAL, INC., 4255 BURTON DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Derrick Sung	director	C/O IRHYTHM TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 650 TOWNSEND STREET, SUITE 380, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
David M Clapper	director, officer: President and CEO	3003 TASMAN DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Jaffe Ross A Md	director	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 3630, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Evgueni V. Skalnyi	officer: VP Medical Affairs	C/O MINERVA SURGICAL, INC., 4225 BURTON DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Dominique J. Filloux	officer: COO	C/O MINERVA SURGICAL, INC., 4225 BURTON DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Joel R Jung	officer: CFO	1401 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502
Niquette L. Hunt	director	SOLITON, INC., 5304 ASHBROOK DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77081
Jill Anderson	director	1600 WEST MERIT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Nea Partners 13, Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202