US Stem Cell (US Stem Cell) Predictability Rank

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What is US Stem Cell Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

US Stem Cell Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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US Stem Cell (US Stem Cell) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » US Stem Cell Inc (OTCPK:USRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1560 Sawgrass Corporate Parkway, 4th Floor, Sunrise, FL, USA, 33323

Website

http://www.us-stemcell.com

US Stem Cell Inc is a biotechnology company engaged in the discovery and development of autologous cell therapies for the treatment of chronic and acute heart damage. Its product includes MyoCell, a clinical therapy designed to populate regions of scar tissue within a patient's heart with autologous muscle cells, or cells from a patient's body, for the purpose of improving cardiac function in chronic heart failure patients. The company's discoveries include multiple cell therapies in various stages of development that repair damaged tissues throughout the body due to injury or disease so that patients may return to a normal lifestyle.

Executives

Murphy William P Jr	director	13794 NW 4TH STREET, SUITE 212, SUNRISE FL 33325
Gregory Knutson	director	14855 ABERDEN STREET NE, HAM LAKE MN 55304
Mark P Borman	director	5240 WASHBURN AVENUE SOUTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55410
Charles A Hart	director	19345 RHINESTONE STREET NW, ANOKA MN 55303
Sheldon T. Anderson	director	1121 CRANDON BLVD., APT. D-103, KEY BISCAYNE FL 33149
Kristin C Comella	officer: Chief Science Officer	1310 LEEWARD WAY, WESTON FL 33327
A Jones Lee	director	54 LOCKE LAKE RD, FRIDLEY MN 55432
Karl Groth	director	1160 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 207, NEW YORK NY 10029
Matthew J Fendrich	officer: Vice President,Sales&Marketing	482 PEACOCK LANE SOUTH, JUPITER FL 33458
Alan P Timmins	director	1111 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Bruce C Carson	director	11850 COTTONWOOD STREET NW, COON RAPIDS MN 55448
Howard J Leonhardt	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman & CTO	13794 NW 4TH STREET, SUITE 212, SUNRISE FL 33325
Bromley R Scott	officer: VP of Public Relations	13794 NW 4TH STREET, SUITE 212, SUNRISE FL 33325
Richard Iii Spencer	director	13794 NW 4TH STREET, SUITE 212, SUNRISE FL 33325
Mike Tomas	director	13794 NW 4TH STREET, SUITE 212, SUNRISE FL 33325