Unit (UNTC) Predictability Rank

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What is Unit Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Unit Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Unit (UNTC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Unit Corp (OTCPK:UNTC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8200 South Unit Drive, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74132

Website

https://www.unitcorp.com

Unit Corp is an oil and natural gas contract drilling company. The company is also in exploration and production and mid-stream areas. There are three segments which include Oil and Natural gas, Contract Drilling and Mid-stream. The oil and natural gas segment is engaged in the development, acquisition, and production of oil, NGLs, and natural gas properties. The contract drilling segment is engaged in the land contract drilling of oil and natural gas wells and the mid-stream segment is engaged in the buying, selling, gathering, processing, and treating of natural gas. Majority of revenue is generated from Oil and Natural Gas.

Executives

Micheal L Hicks	officer: President, Superior Pipeline	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Peyton G Bailey Iv	director	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
George L Austin	officer: Sr. VP and CFO	C/O CYPRESS ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P., 5727 S LEWIS AVENUE, SUITE 500, TULSA OK 74105
David P Dunham	officer: Sr VP Business Development	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Frank Q Young	officer: Executive Vice President, UPC	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Carla S Mashinski	director	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Larry C Payne	director	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Don A Hayes	officer: Controller	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Steven B Hildebrand	director	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Brad Guidry	officer: Senior Vice President, UPC	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
John Cromling	officer: Executive Vice President, UDC	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Robert Parks	officer: Manager, Superior Pipeline	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Sullivan Robert J Jr	director	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
Gary R Christopher	director	8200 S. UNIT DRIVE, TULSA OK 74132
George Kaiser Family Foundation	10 percent owner	7030 SOUTH YALE AVENUE, SUITE 600, TULSA OK 74136