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Urgently (Urgently) Predictability Rank


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What is Urgently Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Urgently Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Urgently Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Urgently's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Urgently (Urgently) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Urgently Inc (NAS:ULY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ZENV LVER INVU KWIK AEYE OTMO MFON GOLQ PRCH DPSI CRM XTER:SAP INTU NOW UBER CDNS SHOP WDAY XPAR:DSY ROP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8609 Westwood Center Drive, Suite 810, Vienna, VA, USA, 22182
Website
https://www.geturgently.com
Urgent.ly Inc is a leading connected mobility assistance software platform, matching vehicle owners and operators with service professionals who deliver traditional roadside assistance, proactive maintenance and repair services. The traditional experience of a vehicle breakdown is often stressful and inconvenient, compounded by processes that lack transparency and lead to long wait times. Urgently offers an innovative alternative to this traditional experience, leveraging its digitally native software platform to match supply and demand in its network and deliver exceptional mobility assistance experiences at scale.
Executives
Volkow Ben director 16 ABBA EBAN BLVD., HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 467256
Andrew M Geisse director 208 S. AKARD ST., DALLAS TX 75202
Timothy C. Huffmyer officer: Chief Financial Officer 1000 PARK DRIVE, LAWRENCE PA 15055
James M Micali director C/O SONOCO PRODUCTS COMPANY, 1 NORTH SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Gina Domanig director 8609 WESTWOOD CENTER DR STE 810, VIENNA VA 22182
Ryan Pollock director 8609 WESTWOOD CENTER DR STE 810, VIENNA VA 22182
Matthew Booth director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 8609 WESTWOOD CENTER DR STE 810, VIENNA VA 22182
Suzie Doran director 8609 WESTWOOD CENTER DR STE 810, VIENNA VA 22182