Unique Fabricating (Unique Fabricating) Predictability Rank

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What is Unique Fabricating Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Unique Fabricating Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Unique Fabricating (Unique Fabricating) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Unique Fabricating Inc (OTCPK:UFABQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

800 Standard Parkway, Auburn Hills, MI, USA, 48326

Website

https://www.uniquefab.com

Unique Fabricating Inc is engaged in the engineering and manufacture of multi-material foam, rubber, and plastic components utilized in noise, vibration and harshness, acoustical management, water and air sealing, decorative and other functional applications. Its products are air management products, heating ventilating and air conditioning, seals, fender stuffers, air ducts, acoustical insulation, door water shields, gas tank pads, light gaskets, topper pads, mirror gaskets, glove box liners, personal protection equipment, and packaging. It derives net sales from the sales of foam, rubber plastic, and tape adhesive related automotive products produced by manufacturing processes including die cutting, compression molding, thermoforming, reaction injection molding and fusion molding.

Executives

Baum Richard L Jr	director	10 KINZEL LANE, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Susan C. Benedict	director	C/O STONERIDGE, INC., 39675 MACKENZIE DRIVE, SUITE 400, NOVI MI 48377
Peninsula Fund V Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	500 WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 2800, DETROIT MI 48226
William Cooke	director	800 STANDARD PARKWAY, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Patrick W Cavanagh	director	800 STANDARD PARKWAY, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Brian P Loftus	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O UNIQUE FABRICATING, 800 STANDARD PARKWAY, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Cain Byrd Douglas Iii	officer: President and CEO	2622 TWIN HILLS COURT, UNION KY 41091
Donn J Viola	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Paul Frascoia	director	800 STANDARD PARKWAY, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Kim Korth	director	C/O IRN, INC., 2680 WALKER AVENUE, SUITE A, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49544
James Albert Illikman	director	500 WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 2800, DETROIT MI 48226
Thomas Tekiele	officer: Chief Financial Officer	800 STANDARD PARKWAY, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
John Weinhardt	director, officer: President and CEO	800 STANDARD PARKWAY, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326