AgEagle Aerial Systems (AgEagle Aerial Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is AgEagle Aerial Systems Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

AgEagle Aerial Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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AgEagle Aerial Systems (AgEagle Aerial Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc (AMEX:UAVS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

29ZA:Germany

Address

8863 East. 34th Street North, Wichita, KS, USA, 67226

Website

https://www.ageagle.com

AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc is a provider of drone imagery data analytics for the precision and sustainable agriculture markets. It designs, produces, distributes, and supports technologically- advanced small unmanned aerial systems (UAVs) that it offers for sale commercially to the precision agriculture industry. Its segments include Drones, Sensors and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS). The company's majority revenue is derived primarily through the sales of drones and drone-related products.

Executives

Barrett Mooney	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O AGEAGLE AERIAL SYSTEMS, INC., 8863 E. 34TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67226
Nicole M. Fernandez-mcgovern	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AGEAGLE AERIAL SYSTEMS INC., 8863 E. 34TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67226
Kelly Anderson	director	C/O TOMI ENVIRONMENTAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 9454 WILSHIRE BLVD., R-1, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Grant A Begley	director	420 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 100, PALM BEACH FL 33480
Thomas J Gardner	director	C/O AGEAGLE AERIAL SYSTEMS, INC., 117 SOUTH 4TH STREET, NEODESHA KS 66757
Michael D O'sullivan	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O AGEAGLE AERIAL SYSTEMS, INC., 8863 E. 34TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67226
Luisa Ingargiola	director	4826 BLUE JAY CIRCLE, PALM HARBOR FL 34683
Bret Chilcott	director, officer: CEO, President, Secretary	C/O AGEAGLE AERIAL SYSTEMS, INC., 117 SOUTH 4TH STREET, NEODESHA KS 66757
Michael Drozd	officer: Chief Executive Officer	117 S. 4TH STREET, NEODESHA KS 66757
Kull Corbett	director	C/O AGEAGLE AERIAL SYSTEMS, INC., 117 SOUTH 4 STREET, NEODESHA KS 66757
Louis G Schott	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4040 BROADWAY, SUITE 508, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209
Scott R Burell	director	6500 HARBOUR HEIGHTS PKWY #303, MUKILTEO WA 98275
Lindsay Katrina Edwards	director	C/O AGEAGLE AERIAL SYSTEMS, INC., 117 SOUTH 4TH STREET, NEODESHA KS 66757
Kent Roach	officer: Executive Vice President	4040 BROADWAY, SUITE 508, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209
David L Kunovic	officer: Vice President of Exploration	4040 BROADWAY, SUITE 508, SAN ANTONIO TX 78209