TTM Technologies (TTM Technologies) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2000. Start your Free Trial

What is TTM Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TTM Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

TTM Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of TTM Technologies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

TTM Technologies (TTM Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » TTM Technologies Inc (NAS:TTMI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TT1:Germany

Address

200 East Sandpointe, Suite 400, Santa Ana, CA, USA, 92707

Website

https://www.ttm.com

TTM Technologies Inc manufactures printed circuit boards. The company is based in the United States and derives roughly half of its revenue domestically. The company organizes itself into two segments: printed circuit boards and RF&S Components. The printed circuit boards segment, which contributes the majority of revenue, offers a range of printed circuit boards as well as layout design and simulation, and testing services. TTM Technologies' products are used in manufacturing, networking, telecommunications, computing, aerospace, and medical fields.

Executives

Robert P. Farrell	officer: President C&C	200 EAST SANDPOINTE, SUITE 400, SANTA ANA CA 92707
Shawn A. Powers	officer: EVP, Human Resources	1665 SCENIC AVENUE SUITE 250, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Daniel L. Boehle	officer: EVP of Finance	C/O AEROJET ROCKETDYNE HOLDINGS, INC., 222 N. SEPULVEDA BOULEVARD, SUITE 500, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Dale Martin Knecht	officer: SVP Information Technology	200 EAST SANDPOINTE, SUITE 400, SANTA ANA CA 92707
Daniel J Weber	officer: See Remarks	1665 SCENIC AVENUE, SUITE 250, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Catherine A Gridley	officer: SVP & President of A&D BU	200 EAST SANDPOINTE, SUITE 400, SANTA ANA CA 92707
Tony Sanchez	officer: Vice President & Controller	1665 SCENIC AVENUE, SUITE 250, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Tom Clapprood	officer: President A&D Radar Systems	200 EAST SANDPOINTE, SUITE 400, SANTA ANA CA 92707
Todd B Schull	officer: Executive Vice President	1665 SCENIC AVENUE, SUITE 250, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Philip Titterton	officer: See Remarks	1665 SCENIC AVENUE, SUITE 250, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Tai Keung Chung	officer: See Remarks	NO. 4 DAI SHUN STREET, TAI PO INDUSTRIAL ESTATE, TAI PO, NT,, HONG KONG K3 00000
Pamela B. Jackson	director	200 EAST SANDPOINTE, SUITE 400, SANTA ANA CA 92707
William Kent Hardwick	officer: SVP Global Sales and EMS	5 KENTWOOD COURT, SCOTTS VALLEY CA 95066
Douglas L Soder	officer: Executive Vice President	1665 SCENIC AVENUE, SUITE 250, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Jeff Jankowsky	officer: President, C&C BU	1665 SCENIC AVENUE, SUITE 250, COSTA MESA CA 92626