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Xtra-Gold Resources (TSX:XTG) Predictability Rank


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What is Xtra-Gold Resources Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xtra-Gold Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Xtra-Gold Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Xtra-Gold Resources (TSX:XTG) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Xtra-Gold Resources Corp (TSX:XTG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSXV:WVM TSXV:GLB TSXV:RDS TSX:LN TSXV:OMG TSXV:SIG TSX:STGO TSXV:MMY TSXV:SOMA TSXV:NCAU SHSE:601899 NEM TSX:AEM TSX:ABX TSX:WPM TSX:FNV SHSE:600547 JSE:GFI MIC:PLZL ASX:NST
Traded in Other Exchanges
XTGRF:USA
Address
Shirley Street Plaza, Suite 2150, P.O Box AP 59217, Nassau, BHS
Website
https://www.xtragold.com
Xtra-Gold Resources Corp is a gold exploration company with a substantial land position in the Kibi Gold Belt. The Kibi Gold Belt, which exhibits many similar geological features to Ghana's main gold belt, the Ashanti Belt, has been the subject of very limited modern exploration activity targeting lode gold deposits as virtually all past gold mining activity and exploration efforts focused on the extensive alluvial gold occurrences in many river valleys throughout the Kibi area. Its mining portfolio consists of 225.87 sq km comprised of 33.65 sq km for the Kibi project, 51.67 sq km for Banso project, 55.28 sq km for Muoso project, 44.76 sq km for the Kwabeng project, and 40.51 sq km for the Pameng project, or 55,873 acres, pursuant to the leased areas set forth in mining leases.
Executives
Leon Van Der Merwe 10% Security Holder

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