Townsquare Media (Townsquare Media) Predictability Rank

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What is Townsquare Media Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Townsquare Media Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Townsquare Media (Townsquare Media) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Townsquare Media Inc (NYSE:TSQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2T8:Germany

Address

One Manhattanville Road, Suite 202, Purchase, New York, NY, USA, 10577

Website

https://www.townsquaremedia.com

Townsquare Media Inc is a radio, digital media, entertainment, and digital marketing solutions company principally focused on being the premier local advertising and marketing solutions platform in small and mid-sized markets across the United States. It has three segments which are Subscription Digital Marketing Solutions, Digital Advertising, and Broadcast Advertising. It earns the majority of the revenue from the Broadcasting Advertising segment. Its portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com, and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com, and Loudwire.com.

Executives

Erik Hellum	officer: COO, Local Media	C/O TOWNSQUARE MEDIA, INC., 1 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 202, PURCHASE NY 10577
Scott Schatz	officer: EVP, Finance Op and Tech	C/O TOWNSQUARE MEDIA, INC., 1 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 202, PURCHASE NY 10577
David Lebow	director	C/O TOWNSQUARE MEDIA, INC, 1 MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 202, PURCHASE NY 10577
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.	10 percent owner	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Gary D Way	director	C/O TOWNSQUARE MEDIA, INC., ONE MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 202, PURCHASE NY 10577
David Quick	director	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Fund Gp Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Ocm Pof Iv Aif Gap Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Atlas Ocm Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Aif Investments, L.p.	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Aif Investment Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Partners Ltd	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, BROOKFIELD PLACE, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3
Brookfield Asset Management Inc.	10 percent owner	BROOKFIELD PLACE, 181 BAY ST, STE 100, PO BOX 762, TORONTO A6 M5J2T3