TrueCar (TrueCar) Predictability Rank

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What is TrueCar Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TrueCar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TrueCar (TrueCar) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » TrueCar Inc (NAS:TRUE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5TC:Germany

Address

1401 Ocean Avenue, Suite 200, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90401

Website

https://www.truecar.com

TrueCar Inc is a data-driven online platform operating on common technology infrastructure, powered by proprietary data and analytics. It also customizes and operates its platform for affinity group marketing partners, including financial institutions like PenFed and American Express; membership-based organizations like Consumer Reports, AARP, Sam's Club, and AAA; and employee buying programs for large enterprises such as IBM and Walmart. The company enables users to obtain market-based pricing data on new and used cars, and to connect with its network of TrueCar Certified Dealers.

Executives

Oliver Foley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1401 OCEAN AVE, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Jay Ku	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	1401 OCEAN AVE, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
John W Mendel	director	C/O TRUECAR, INC., 120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Brendan L Harrington	director	1401 OCEAN AVE, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Teresa Luong	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1401 OCEAN AVE, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Christopher W Claus	director	TRUECAR, INC., 120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Robert Buce	director	TRUECAR, INC., 120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Faye Iosotaluno	director	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Michael Darrow	officer: EVP, OEM Development	C/O TRUECAR, INC., SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Jeff Swart	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O TRUECAR, INC. 120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Charles C. Thomas	officer: VP, Controller, PFO, PAO	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Simon Edward Smith	officer: EVP, Dealer Sales & Services	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Jantoon Reigersman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1655 26TH STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Kristin Slanina	officer: Chief Operating Officer	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Barbara Carbone	director	120 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, SANTA MONICA CA 90401