Tenaya Therapeutics (Tenaya Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Tenaya Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tenaya Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tenaya Therapeutics (Tenaya Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Tenaya Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TNYA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

171 Oyster Point Boulevard, Suite 500, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.tenayatherapeutics.com

Tenaya Therapeutics Inc is a preclinical stage biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and delivering curative therapies that address the underlying drivers of heart disease. It is advancing product candidates from three product platforms: gene therapy, cellular regeneration, and precision medicine.

Executives

Timothy Hoey	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O TENAYA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 171 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, 5TH FLR., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Leone D Patterson	officer: Chief Fin and Bus. Officer
Whittemore Tingley	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O TENAYA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 171 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Faraz Ali	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TENAYA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 171 OYSTER POINT BLVD., 5TH FLR., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO Z4 94080
David V Goeddel	director, 10 percent owner	C/O COLUMN GROUP LP, 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Column Group Iii Gp, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Amy L. Burroughs	director	TWO CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 260, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Column Group Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Column Group Opportunity Iii Gp, Lp	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE DM-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Tcg Opportunity Iii Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE DM-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Column Group Opportunity Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE DM-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Deepak Srivastava	director	C/O TENAYA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 171 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Column Group Iii-a, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Eli Casdin	director	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1140, NEW YORK NY 10019
Casdin Capital, Llc	director	1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10019