What is Trinet Group Predictability Rank?
5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Trinet Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Trinet Group (Trinet Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
One Park Place, Suite 600, Dublin, CA, USA, 94568
TriNet offers outsourced payroll and human capital management solutions for small and midsize businesses via a professional employer organization model. Under the PEO model, TriNet enters a co-employment arrangement and acts as the employer of record for administrative and regulatory purposes for clients' employees, known as worksite employees. Clients leverage the scale and expertise of TriNet to access competitive employee benefits, share employment risk liability, access compliance support, and outsource mission-critical day-to-day HR functions such as payroll and tax administration. Following the acquisition of Zenefits and Clarus R+D in 2022, TriNet derives the minority of its revenue from self-service HCM software and R&D tax credit services.
Executives
| Alexander G. Warren |
officer: SVP, CHIEF REVENUE OFFICER |
ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| Burton M. Goldfield |
director, officer: PRESIDENT, CEO and DIRECTOR |
ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| Ralph A. Clark |
director |
C/O SHOTSPOTTER, INC., 7979 GATEWAY BLVD., STE. 210, NEWARK CA 94560 |
| Samantha Wellington |
officer: SVP, CLO & SECRETARY |
ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| Kelly L Tuminelli |
officer: EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
TRINET GROUP, INC., ONE PARK PLACE, STE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| L.p. Agi-t, |
director, 10 percent owner |
40 MORRIS AVENUE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010 |
| Paul Edward Chamberlain |
director |
C/O VEEVA SYSTEMS INC., 4280 HACIENDA DRIVE, PLEASANTON CA 94588 |
| Jonathan D. Lee |
officer: PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER |
ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| Jayaraman Venkataramani |
officer: CHIEF DIGITAL & INNOV OFFICER |
ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| H Raymond Bingham |
director |
2655 SEELY AVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Martin Babinec |
director |
TRINET GROUP INC., ONE PARK PLACE., STE. 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| Wayne B Lowell |
director |
3061 ZANKER ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Olivier Kohler |
officer: SVP, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER |
ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
| Myrna Soto |
director |
ONE ENERGY PLAZA, JACKSON MI 49201 |
| Katherine August-dewilde |
director |
ONE PARK PLACE, SUITE 600, DUBLIN CA 94568 |
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