What is Tingo Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tingo Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tingo (TMNA) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11650 South State Street, Suite 240, Draper, UT, USA, 84020
Tingo Inc is an Agri-Fintech company offering a comprehensive platform service through the use of smartphones (using GSM technology) to empower a marketplace to enable subscribers/farmers within and outside of the agricultural sector to manage their commercial activities. The ecosystem provides a 'one-stop-shop solution to enable such subscribers to manage everything from airtime top-ups, bill pay services for utilities and other service providers, access to insurance services, and microfinance to support their value chain from 'seed to sale'.
Executives
| Dozy Mmobousi |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO |
BRICKFIELD, RADLETT X0 WD7 8BS |
| Christophe Charlier |
director |
7F 77/2 AL-FARABI AVENUE, ALMATY 1P 050040 |
| Rory Bowen |
officer: Chief of Staff |
APARTMENT 19, 2 OFFENHAM ROAD, LONDON X0 SW9 7BN |
| Daksheshkumar B Patel |
director, officer: CFO |
APARTMENT 205, THE EMPEROR, 8 WEST ROAD SOUTH, SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG T3 2196 |
| Leslie Nabanya Kasumba |
director |
199 SIBAYA SANDS 9 THE STRAIGHT AVENUE, PINESLOPES, LONEHILL, SANDTON, JOHANNESBURG T3 2191 |
| Kenneth I Denos |
officer: EVP, Genl Counsel & Secy |
10757 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SUITE 125, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095 |
| Onyekachi Elochukwu Onubogu |
director |
14 A DASILVA ROAD, LAGOS Q5 101222 |
| Christopher John Cleverly |
director, officer: President |
60 THE GREEN, POULSHOT DEVICES X0 5N101RT |
| Derrick Randall-emeka |
director |
21 MILESPIT HILL, MILL HILL X0 NW7 2PJ |
| Adewale Adebayo |
director |
1004 ESTATE, CLUSTAR D1 APARTMENT 116, VICTORIA ISLAND / LAGOS Q5 101241 |
| Alex Lightman |
director |
3470 ONLEY-LAYTONSVILLE ROAD, SUITE 118, OLNEY MD 20832 |
| John J Brown |
director |
1450 BOOT RD BLDG 400, ROM TECH INC, WEST CHESTER PA 19380 |
| Zoliwe Macanda-simbodyal |
director |
29 WOOLCOMBES COURT, LONDON X0 SE16 5RQ |
| Gurjinder Johal |
director |
301 EAST 21ST, #13B, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Tingo, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
11650 SOUTH STATE STREET, SUITE 240, DRAPER UT 84020 |
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