TransMedics Group (TransMedics Group) Predictability Rank

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What is TransMedics Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TransMedics Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TransMedics Group (TransMedics Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » TransMedics Group Inc (NAS:TMDX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8T8:Germany TMDX:Germany

Address

200 Minuteman Road, Andover, MA, USA, 01810

Website

https://www.transmedics.com

TransMedics Group Inc is a commercial-stage medical technology company transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients across multiple disease states. It has developed the Organ Care System(OCS) to comprehensively address the limitations of cold storage. The OCS is a portable organ perfusion, optimization and monitoring system that utilizes technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body.

Executives

Tamer I Khayal	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	TRANSMEDICS INC, 200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
Miriam Provost	officer: VP of US Regulatory & FDA Rel.	2000 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
Waleed H Hassanein	director, officer: President & CEO	TRANSMEDICS INC, 200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
James R Tobin	director	C/O CURIS INC, 4 MAGUIRE ROAD, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Stephen Gordon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
David Weill	director	200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, SUITE 302, ANDOVER MA 01810
Anil P. Ranganath	officer: See Remarks	C/O TRANSMEDICS GROUP, INC., 200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, SUITE 302, ANDOVER MA 01810
Edward M Basile	director	200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, ANDOVER MA 01810
John F Carey	officer: VP of Operations	200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, SUITE 302, ANDOVER MA 01810
Nicholas Corcoran	officer: See Remarks	C/O TRANSMEDICS GROUP, INC., 200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, SUITE 302, ANDOVER MA 01810
Laura Damme	officer: VP, Clinical Affairs	C/O TRANSMEDICS GROUP, INC., 200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, SUITE 302, ANDOVER MA 01810
Stephanie Lovell	director	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Kania Edwin M Jr	director
Rakesh P. Godhani	officer: Chief Digital Officer	C/O TRANSMEDICS GROUP, INC., 200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, SUITE 302, ANDOVER MA 01810
John F Sullivan	officer: VP of Quality & Engineering	200 MINUTEMAN ROAD, SUITE 302, ANDOVER MA 01810