What is TMC The Metals Co Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
TMC The Metals Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
TMC The Metals Co (TMC The Metals Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
595 Howe Street, 10th Floor, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 2T5
TMC The Metals Co Inc is a deep-sea minerals exploration company focused on the collection, processing and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in international waters of the Clarion Clipperton Zone. Geographically, the company has its presence in Nauru, Singapore, Tonga and North America.
Executives
| Craig Shesky |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
570 BROOME STREET, APT. 13A, NEW YORK NY 10013 |
| Anthony O'sullivan |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
19 TENNYSON STREET, BULIMBA, QUEENSLAND C3 4171 |
| Gregory Stone |
officer: Chief Ocean Scientist |
17350 SUNSET BLVD., 502, PACIFIC PALISADES CA 90272 |
| Allseas Group S.a. |
10 percent owner |
18 ROUTE DE PRA DE PLAN, CASE POSTALE 411, CHATEL-SAINT-DENIS V8 1618 |
| Andrei Karkar |
director, 10 percent owner |
323 MARINA BOULEVARD, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123 |
| Gerard Barron |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
APT. 6403, JADDAF WATERFRONT TOWER D1, DUBAI C0 00000 |
| Argentum Cedit Virtuti Gcv |
10 percent owner |
WIEGSTRAAT 21, ANTWERPEN C9 2000 |
| Stichting Administratiekantoor Aequa Lance Foundation |
10 percent owner |
C/O ALLSEAS GROUP S.A., 18 ROUTE DE PRA DE PLAN, CHATEL-SAINT-DENIS V8 1618 |
| Edward Heerema |
10 percent owner |
C/O ALLSEAS GROUP S.A., 18 ROUTE DE PRA DE PLAN, CHATEL-SAINT-DENIS V8 1618 |
| Allseas Investments S.a. |
10 percent owner |
18 ROUTE DE PRA DE PLAN, CHATEL-SAINT-DENIS V8 1618 |
| Andrew Carlyle Greig |
director |
1 MACQUARIE ST, TENERIFFE, QLD C3 4005 |
| Sheila Khama |
director |
PO BOX 2007, GABORONE B1 00000 |
| Amelia Kinahoi Siamomua |
director |
3575 BEACHHILL DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30340 |
| Christian Madsbjerg |
director |
36 WEST 13TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011 |
| Andrew Hall |
director |
16 BARONSFIELD ROAD, TWICKENHAM X0 TW1 2QU |
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