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Trex Wind Down (Trex Wind Down) Predictability Rank


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What is Trex Wind Down Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Trex Wind Down Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Trex Wind Down Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Trex Wind Down (Trex Wind Down) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Trex Wind Down Inc (OTCPK:TMBRQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
IMNN GRTX CMRA EVLO ONVO VYNE ARAV BNTC EDSA EIGR OCSE:NOVO B VRTX REGN ASX:CSL SGEN XKRX:207940 MRNA HKSE:02269 XBRU:ARGX BNTX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3 Mountain View Road, Suite 100, Warren, NJ, USA, 07059
Website
https://www.timberpharma.com
Timber Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of treatments for orphan dermatologic diseases. Its investigational therapies have mechanisms of action backed by decades of clinical experience and well-established CMC (chemistry, manufacturing, and control) and safety profiles. The company is focused on developing non-systemic treatments for rare dermatologic diseases including congenital ichthyosis (CI), X-linked recessive CI (XLRI) and autosomal recessive CI (ARCI), and other sclerotic skin diseases. The company's late-stage program is TMB-001., and TMB-003 is the earliest-stage program.
Executives
John Koconis director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Alan Mendelsohn officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 TICE BLVD., SUITE A26, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677
Edward J Sitar director 39 FLAMING ARROW ROAD, MAHWAH NJ 07430
Tardimed Sciences Llc 10 percent owner 303 SOUTH BROADWAY, SUITE 125, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
David E Cohen director 3160 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Lubor Gaal director C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Kimberly Bragg officer: Controller C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Amir Tavakkol officer: Chief Scientific Officer C/O VIAMET PHARMACEUTICALS HOLDINGS LLC, 4505 EMPEROR BLVD., SUITE 300, DURHAM NC 27703
Michael Derby director, officer: Executive Chairman 303 SOUTH BROADWAY, SUITE 125, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Zachary Rome director, officer: Executive VP, COO and Sec. C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Joseph Lucchese officer: Executive VP & CFO C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Michael Stocum director C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMILTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Linda A Broenniman director 1895 PRESTON WHITE DR, STE 250, RESTON VA 20191
Gianluca Pirozzi director C/O TIMBER PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 900 E. HAMITON AVENUE, SUITE 100, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Timber Pharmaceuticals Llc 10 percent owner 50 TICE BOULEVARD, SUITE A26, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677