What is Alpha Teknova Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Alpha Teknova Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Alpha Teknova (Alpha Teknova) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2451 Bert Drive, Hollister, CA, USA, 95023
Alpha Teknova Inc provides critical reagents that enable the discovery, development, and production of biopharmaceutical products such as drug therapies, novel vaccines, and molecular diagnostics. Its product offerings include pre-poured media plates for cell growth and cloning, liquid cell culture media and supplements for cellular expansion, and molecular biology reagents for sample manipulation, resuspension, and purification.
Executives
| Ken Gelhaus |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| Stephen Gunstream |
director, officer: See Remarks |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| J Matthew Mackowski |
director |
343 SANSOME ST, SUITE 1215, SANSASAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| Matthew Lowell |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| Damon Terrill |
officer: See Remarks |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| Thp Iv Affiliates Fund, Llc |
10 percent owner |
360 POST STREET, SUITE 601, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108 |
| Martha J Demski |
director |
7770 REGENTS ROAD SUITE 113-505, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Lisa Hood |
officer: Chief People Officer |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| Irene Davis |
director |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| Ted Davis |
director |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| Telegraph Hill Partners Iv, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
360 POST STREET, SUITE 601, SAN FRANCISCO MA 94108 |
| Paul David Grossman |
director |
1600 FARADAY AVENUE, CARLSBAD CA 92008 |
| Brett Robertson |
director |
C/O INVUITY, INC., 444 DE HARO STREET, SAN FRANCOSCO CA 94107 |
| Alexander C. Herzick |
director |
2290 BERT DRIVE, HOLLISTER CA 95023 |
| Telegraph Hill Partners Management Company, Llc |
10 percent owner |
360 POST STREET, SUITE 601, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108 |
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