Third Harmonic Bio (Third Harmonic Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Third Harmonic Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Third Harmonic Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Third Harmonic Bio (Third Harmonic Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Third Harmonic Bio Inc (NAS:THRD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1700 Montgomery Street, Suite 210, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111

Website

https://www.thirdharmonicbio.com

Third Harmonic Bio Inc is a clinical-stage company focused on the development of the next wave of medicine for the treatment of inflammatory diseases, including dermal, respiratory, and gastrointestinal diseases.. The company's product candidate, THB001, is a selective, oral small-molecule inhibitor of KIT, a cell surface receptor that serves as the master regulator of mast cell function and survival.

Executives

Julie Person	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O THIRD HARMONIC BIO, INC., 300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Edward R. Conner	officer: Chief Medical Officer	501 CANAL BLVD., POINT RICHMOND TECH CENTER, RICHMOND CA 94804
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners L P/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Gp Holdings Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Ii Gp Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf I Gp Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners Os Ltd.	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Biotechnology Value Trading Fund Os Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Bvf Inc/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Mark N Lampert	10 percent owner	1 SANSOME ST, 30TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Biotechnology Value Fund Ii Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
David P Bonita	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC, 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Atlas Venture Fund Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139