Tecnoglass (Tecnoglass) Predictability Rank

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What is Tecnoglass Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tecnoglass Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tecnoglass (Tecnoglass) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » Tecnoglass Inc (NYSE:TGLS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7FH:Germany

Address

Avenida Circunvalar a 100 mts de la Via 40, Barrio Las Flores, Barranquilla, COL

Website

https://www.tecnoglass.com

Tecnoglass Inc designs, manufactures, distributes, and markets architectural glass and windows. The company's products portfolio includes tempered, laminated, insulating and Solar Control Low-E glass. Its products are installed at hotels, residential buildings, commercial and corporate centers, airports and hospitals as floating facades, curtain walls, windows, doors, handrails, interior and dividers. Its majority of revenue is derived from the sale and installation of architectural glass and windows in the United States.

Executives

Energy Holding Corp	10 percent owner	AVALON MANAGEMENT LMT. LANDMARK SQ. 1 FL, 54 EARTH CLOSE,WESTBAY BEACH S PO BOX715, GRAND CAYMAN KY1-1107 E9 XXXXX
Jose M Daes	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR A 100 MTS DE LA VIA, 40, BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 XXXXX
Christian T Daes	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR A 100 MTS DE LA VIA, 40, BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 XXXXX
A Lorne Weil	director	C/O HYDRA INDUSTRIES ACQUISITION CORP, 250 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE #2223, NEW YORK NY 10107
Julio A. Torres	director	CARRERA 10 NO. 28-49, TORRE A. OFICINA 20-05, BOGOTA F8 XXXXX
Anne Louise Carricarte	director	AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR A 100 MTS DE LA VIA, BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 080001
Martha L Byorum	director	ONE BEEKMAN PLACE #9/10A, NEW YORK NY 10022
Cure Cure Carlos Alfredo	director	C/O TECNOGLASS INC., AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR, A 100 MTS DE LA VIA 40 BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 000000
Castro Vergara Luis Fernando	director	C/O TECNOGLASS INC. AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR, A 100 MTS DE LA VIA 40 BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 00000
Santiago Giraldo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR A 100 MTS, DE LA VIA 40, BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 00000
Joaquin Fernandez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR A LA 100 MTS DE LA, VIA 40, BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 XXXXX
Juan Carlos Vilarino	director	AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR A 100 MTS, DE LA VIA 40, BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 XXXXX
Velilla Becerra Alberto Jose	10 percent owner	AVALON MGT LTD LANDMARK SQUARE,1ST FL 64, EARTH CLOSE, WEST BAY BEACH, S PO BOX715, GRAND CAYMAN KY1-1107 E9 XXXXX
Samuel R Azout	director	AVENIDA CIRCUNVALAR A 100 MTS DE LA VIA, 40, BARRIO LAS FLORES, BARRANQUILLA F8 XXXXX
B. Luke Weil	officer: Chief Executive Officer	CARRERA 10 NO. 28-49, TORRE A. OFICINA 20-05, BOGOTA F8 XXXXX