Tecogen (Tecogen) Predictability Rank

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What is Tecogen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tecogen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tecogen Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tecogen (Tecogen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Tecogen Inc (OTCPK:TGEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2T1:Germany

Address

45 First Avenue, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.tecogen.com

Tecogen Inc, designs, manufactures, markets, and maintains high efficiency, ultra-clean cogeneration products. It operates in three business segments, namely Products, Services and Energy Production. Products segment designs, manufactures and sells industrial and commercial cogeneration systems. Services segment provides operations and maintenance services and turn-key installation for products under long term service contracts. Energy Production segment sells energy in the form of electricity, heat, hot water and cooling to the customers under long-term energy sales agreements.

Executives

Earl R Lewis	director	C/O NXSTAGE MEDICAL INC. (NXTM), 439 SOUTH UNION STREET, 5TH FLOOR, LAWRENCE MA 01843
John Hatsopoulos	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	85 FIRST AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Susan B Hirsch	director	280 OLD SOMERSET ROAD, WATCHUNG NJ 07069
Abinand Rangesh	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	45 FIRST AVE, WALTHAM MA 02451
John M Albertine	director	100 FEDERAL DRIVE, FREDERICKSBURG VA 22405
Pacheco Ann Marie Brown	10 percent owner, other: Trustee	C/O TECOGEN INC., 45 FIRST AVE., WALTHAM MA 02451
Ralph Jenkins	director	45 FIRST AVE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Fred Holubow	director
Locke M. Benjamin	officer: Co-CEO	45 FIRST AVE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Whiting John Kimball Iv	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	49 L STREET, UNIT 9, BOSTON MA 02127
Deanna M Petersen	director	45 FIRST AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Yiannis Monovoukas	10 percent owner	TEI BIOSCIENCES, INC., 7 ELKINS STREET, BOSTON MA 02127
Charlest Maxwell	director	6100 NORTH WESTERN AVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73118
Keith Davidson	director	C/O TECOGEN INC., 45 FIRST AVE., WALTHAM MA 02451
David A Garrison	officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary	C/O ARRHYTHMIA RESEARCH TECHNOLOGY INC., 25 SAWYER PASSWAY, FITCHBURG MA 01420