Tenneco (Tenneco) Predictability Rank

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What is Tenneco Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tenneco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tenneco Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tenneco (Tenneco) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Tenneco Inc (NYSE:TEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 North Field Drive, Lake Forest, IL, USA, 60045

Website

https://www.tenneco.com

Tenneco's emissions-control products meet strict air-quality legislation, optimize engine performance, improve fuel economy, and acoustically tune engine sound to fit a vehicle's profile. Ride-control products enhance safety by enabling improved steering, braking, and acceleration as well as ride comfort. Champion, Fel-Pro, Moog, Monroe, and Walker are some of Tenneco's well-known aftermarket brands. In 2021, 40% of revenue came from North America, 36% from Europe, 18% from China, and 6% other regions.

Executives

Nathan P. Bowen	officer: Executive Vice President*	7450 N. MCCORMICK BLVD, SKOKIE IL 60076
Jane L Warner	director	C;/O WESTVACO CORP, ONE HIGH RIDGE PARK, STAMFORD CT 06905
James S Metcalf	director	USG CORP, 125 S FRANKLIN STREET DEPT 188, CHICAGO IL 60606
Dennis J Letham	director	C/O TENNECO INC, 500 FIELD DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Michelle Kumbier	director	3700 WEST JUNEAU AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53208
John W. Wehrenberg	officer: Executive Vice President*	7450 N. MCCORMICK BLVD., SKOKIE IL 60076
Carl C Icahn	10 percent owner	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Sabatino Thomas J Jr	officer: Executive Vice President*	C/O JAN STERN REED BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, ONE BAXTER PARKWAY DF2 2W, DEERFIELD IL 60015
John S Stroup	director	1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., SUITE 1500, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Matti Masanovich	officer: Executive Vice President*	COLLINS & AIKMAN CORPORATION, 250 STEPHENSON HIGHWAY, TROY MI 48083
Scott Usitalo	officer: Executive Vice President	7450 N. MCCORMICK BLVD., SKOKIE IL 60076
Thomas C Freyman	director	500 NORTH FIELD DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Kevin Baird	officer: Executive Vice President*	500 NORTH FIELD DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Aleksandra A Miziolek	director	C/O SOLID POWER, INC., 486 S PIERCE AVE., SUITE E, LOUISVILLE CO 80027
Roy V Armes	director