TScan Therapeutics (TScan Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is TScan Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TScan Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TScan Therapeutics (TScan Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » TScan Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TCRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

830 Winter Street, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.tscan.com

TScan Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development of T-cell receptor (TCR) engineered T cell therapies (TCR-T) for the treatment of patients with cancer. The company's liquid tumor TCR-T therapy candidates, TSC-100 and TSC-101, are in development for the treatment of patients with hematologic malignancies to eliminate residual leukemia and prevent relapse after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. It is also developing multiplexed TCR-T therapy candidates for the treatment of various solid tumors.

Executives

Timothy J Barberich	director	40 ELM ST, CONCORD MA 01752
Barbara Klencke	director	C/O SIERRA ONCOLOGY, INC., 1820 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 110, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Leiden Dworak	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O TSCAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 880 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Lynx1 Capital Management Lp	10 percent owner	151 CALLE DE SAN FRANCISCO, SUITE 200 PMB 1237, SAN JUAN PR 00901-1607
Weston Nichols	10 percent owner	C/O CRINETICS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10222 BARNES CANYON ROAD, BLDG. #2, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Ecor1 Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	357 TEHAMA STREET #3, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Brian M. Silver	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TSCAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Debora Barton	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O TSCAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
David P Southwell	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O INOTEK PHARMACEUTICALS CORPORATION, 91 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Julian Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Bros. Advisors (gp) Llc	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
L.p. 667,	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Brothers Life Sciences Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Felix Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014