Taylor Devices (Taylor Devices) Predictability Rank

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What is Taylor Devices Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Taylor Devices Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Taylor Devices (Taylor Devices) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Taylor Devices Inc (NAS:TAYD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

90 Taylor Drive, P.O. Box 748, North Tonawanda, North Tonawanda, NY, USA, 14120

Website

https://www.taylordevices.com

Taylor Devices Inc is involved in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of shock absorption, rate control, and energy storage devices for use in various types of machinery, equipment, and structures. The company's product line includes Seismic dampers, Fluidicshoks, Crane and industrial buffers, Self-adjusting shock absorbers, Liquid die springs and Vibration Dampers. In general, its products are used to absorb, control, or mitigate the motion of masses caused by earthquakes or explosions. The company markets its product to various industries such as industrial, steel mills, buildings, bridges, aerospace, defense, and automotive industries.

Executives

Ira Sochet	10 percent owner	24 NORTH PINE CIRCLE, BELLEAIR FL 33756
Timothy John Sopko	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120
Paul Murray Heary	officer: Chief Financial Officer	TAYLOR DEVICES, INC., 90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120
Robert Michael Carey	director	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120
Alan Raymond Klembczyk	director, officer: PRESIDENT	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120
Fritz Eric Armenat	director	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120
Randall L Clark	director	475 CAYUGA ROAD, CHEEKTOWAGA NY 14225
Mark V Mcdonough	officer: Chief Financial Officer	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120
Douglas P Taylor	director, officer: President	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120-0748
John Burgess	director	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120
Donald B Hofmar	director	TAYLOR DEVICES INC, 90 TAYLOR DRIVE, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120-0748
Richard G Hill	director, officer: Vice President	90 TAYLOR DRIVE, PO BOX 748, NORTH TONAWANDA NY 14120-0748
Newman Reginald B Ii	director	PRIOR AVIATION SERVICE INC., 50 NORTH AIRPORT DRIVE, BUFFALO NY 14225
Joseph P Gastel	director, officer: Secretary
Baird Foundation Cameron	10 percent owner	C/O KAYINOKY & COOK, 120 DELAWARE AVE, BUFFALO NY 14202