Carrols Restaurant Group (Carrols Restaurant Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Carrols Restaurant Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Carrols Restaurant Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Carrols Restaurant Group (Carrols Restaurant Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Carrols Restaurant Group Inc (NAS:TAST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XQC:Germany

Address

968 James Street, Syracuse, NY, USA, 13203

Website

https://www.carrols.com

Carrols Restaurant Group Inc is a restaurant company. It owns and operates Burger King restaurants in the Northeastern, Midwestern, and Southeastern United States. The Burger King restaurants are quick-service restaurants featuring hamburgers and other sandwiches.

Executives

Anthony E Hull	officer: VP, CFO, Treasurer	175 PARK AVENUE, MADISON NJ 07940
Gretta Miles	officer: VP, Controller, Asst Treasurer	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
Ahmad Filsoof	officer: VP, Strategic Initiatives	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
Cambridge Franchise Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	853 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10003
Richard G Cross	officer: VP, Real Estate	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
Gary Mcquillan	officer: VP, Strategic Procurement	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
Joseph W Hoffman	officer: Chief Restaurant Officer	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
Paulo A Pena	officer: President and CEO	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
John Davis Smith	director	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
Jared L. Landaw	officer: VP, GC, Secretary	101 WEST 79TH STREET - 12B, NEW YORK NY 10024
Nathan Mucher	officer: VP, Chief Information Officer	968 JAMES STREET, SYRACUSE NY 13203
Thomas Benjamin Curtis	director	30 FRANK LLOYD WRIGHT DR, ANN ARBOR MI 48105
Matthew Terker Perelman	director, 10 percent owner	853 BROADWAY, SUITE 2014, NEW YORK NY 10003
Carl S Hauch	officer: VP and COO	ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, INC, 5008 AIRPORT RD, ROANOKE VA 24012
David Harris	director	237 PARK AVENUE - SUITE 900, NEW YORK NY 10017