What is Talkspace Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Talkspace Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Talkspace (Talkspace) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
622 Third Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Talkspace Inc is a behavioral healthcare company enabled by a purpose-built technology platform. Talkspace provides individuals and licensed therapists, psychologists and psychiatrists with an online platform for one-on-one therapy delivered via messaging, audio and video. The Company offers access to a fully credentialed network of providers. The majority of the Company's operations are based in the United States.
Executives
| Steven Dziedzic |
officer: Chief Product Officer |
C/O TALKSPACE, INC., 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025 |
| John Charles Reilly |
officer: General Counsel and Secretary |
C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025 |
| Jon R Cohen |
director |
C/O OPKO HEALTH, INC., 4400 BISCAYNE BLVD., MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Gil Margolin |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025 |
| Michael E Hansen |
director |
C/O TALKSPACE, INC., 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025 |
| Douglas L Braunstein |
director, officer: President, Chairman |
HUDSON EXECUTIVE CAPITAL LP, 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Jeffrey Crowe |
director |
525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 800, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Hudson Executive Capital Lp |
10 percent owner |
C/O CADWALADER, WICKERSHAM & TAFT, LLP, 200 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281 |
| Erin Boyd |
officer: Chief Growth Officer |
C/O TALKSPACE, INC., 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025 |
| Jennifer Fulk |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O TALKSPACE NETWORK LLC, 2578 BROADWAY #607, NEW YORK NY 10025 |
| Hec Management Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
1185 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Curtis Warfield |
director |
6040 DUTCHMANS LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40205 |
| Erez Shachar |
director |
C/O EVERGREEN VENTURE PARTNERS, 25 HABARZEL ST., TEL-AVIV L3 69710 |
| Mark Hirschhorn |
officer: President, COO and CFO |
|
| Jacqueline E Yeaney |
director |
2002 SUMMIT BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30319 |
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