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Gotion High-tech Co (SZSE:002074) Predictability Rank


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What is Gotion High-tech Co Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gotion High-tech Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Gotion High-tech Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Gotion High-tech Co (SZSE:002074) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Gotion High-tech Co Ltd (SZSE:002074) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:601179 SHSE:688777 SHSE:603606 SZSE:000988 SZSE:000400 SHSE:600885 SHSE:601877 SHSE:600517 SZSE:300207 SZSE:301358 SZSE:300750 XSWX:ABBN HAM:OSR VRT TSE:6503 XPAR:LR BKK:DELTA HUBB SZSE:300124 SZSE:300274
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 599 Daihe Road, Xinzhan District, Hefei, CHN, 230012
Website
http://www.gotion.com.cn
Established in 2006 in Hefei, Anhui province, Gotion High-tech, is one of the first enterprises engaged in research, production, and sales of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries for NEVs in China. Its main products include lithium iron phosphate materials and batteries, ternary batteries, battery packs, and energy storage batteries. The products are widely used in new energy passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, energy storage power plants, communication base stations, and so on. Gotion ranked eighth among global EV battery companies with 3% market share in 2022 in terms of installed capacity, and fourth in China with 5% market share. The company is 25%-owned by Volkswagen Group with Chairman Li Zhen holding around 7%.
Executives
An Dong Liang Executives
Director
Wu Yong Gang Executives
Hou Fei Executives
Peng Ming Supervisors
Huang Zhang Xi Executives
Director
Song Jin Bao Executives
Yang Xu Lai Director
Li Zhen Directors, executives
Shen Qiang Sheng Securities Affairs Representative
Fang Xin Yu Executives
Ma Gui Fu Directors, executives
Hu Jiang Lin Directors, executives
Qiu Wei Dong Directors, executives

Gotion High-tech Co (SZSE:002074) Headlines

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