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China Resourcesnjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co (SZSE:000999) Predictability Rank


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What is China Resourcesnjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Resourcesnjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

China Resourcesnjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Resourcesnjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co (SZSE:000999) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (SZSE:000999) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:600085 SZSE:002001 SZSE:000963 SHSE:600196 SHSE:688506 SHSE:600332 SZSE:000423 SZSE:000661 SHSE:600566 SHSE:600079 XTER:MRK ZTS NSE:SUNPHARMA TSE:4502 LSE:HLN XTAE:TEVA XSWX:SDZ NBIX SZSE:000538 NSE:DIVISLAB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
High-Tech Park, Lake Street Mission Hills, Longhua District, Shenzhen, CHN, 518110
Website
http://www.999.com.cn
China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is a China-based pharmaceutical company. It is engaged in the research and development, production and sale of pharmaceutical products, healthcare products, and medical appliances under the brand name 999, which includes OTC, antibiotic and raw material drug. The other brands under which the company offers its products are Lee King, Shunfeng, and Tianhe. The company's core business is located in OTC and Chinese medicine prescription drugs, OTC core products in the cold, gastrointestinal, skin, pediatric, cough and orthopedic drugs occupy a higher market share; prescription drug products in traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular, anti-tumor in the field of anti-infection and other areas.
Executives
Yang Zhan Ao Executives
Independent director
Li De Ming Supervisors
Lin Xi Ping Supervisors
Fang Ming Director
Mai Yi Executives

China Resourcesnjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co (SZSE:000999) Headlines

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