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Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co (SZSE:000895) Predictability Rank


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What is Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co (SZSE:000895) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co Ltd (SZSE:000895) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:002311 SZSE:300765 SHSE:603345 SHSE:600298 SZSE:300146 SZSE:301498 SHSE:600737 SHSE:600872 SZSE:002557 SZSE:002507 XSWX:NESN KHC XPAR:BN GIS NSE:NESTLEIND SHSE:603288 LSE:ABF SHSE:600887 SZSE:300999 K
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 1 Shuanghui Road, Shuanghui Tower, Henan Province, Luohe, CHN, 462000
Website
http://www.shuanghui.net
Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co Ltd is a China-based meat processing company. It is principally engaged in the business of slaughtering, meat food, and food processing, packaging, processing of egg products and aquatic products.
Executives
Li Kai Executives
Hu Yu Hong Supervisors
Wang Hao Jie Executives
Yang Dong Sheng Independent director
Wan Long Director
Liu Jin Tao Executives
Wen Guo Shan Executives
You Zhao Sheng Executives
Liu Song Tao Executives
Hu Yun Gong Supervisors
You Mu Executives
Qi Yong Yao Secretary Dong
Ma Xiang Jie Executives
Zhang Tai Xi Directors, executives
Qiao Hai Li Executives

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co (SZSE:000895) Headlines

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