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Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co (SZSE:000893) Predictability Rank


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What is Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co (SZSE:000893) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co Ltd (SZSE:000893) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:000902 SZSE:301035 SZSE:000553 SZSE:000422 SHSE:603599 SHSE:600596 SZSE:002539 SZSE:002004 SHSE:600486 SZSE:002215 CTVA TSX:NTR CF SAU:2020 SZSE:000792 MOS MIC:PHOR OSL:YAR FMC NSE:PIIND
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 1166 Xin Gang East Road, 19th Floor, South Tower, International Commerce Place, Guangzhou, CHN, 510330
Website
http://www.dongling.cn
Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co Ltd, formerly Donlinks International Investment Co Ltd is primarily involved in the grain trading activities. It trades in corns, sorghums, feeds barleys, DDGs, and others. Further, it is also engaged in the business of overseas dry bulk carriers such as coal and iron ore and provides logistics solution. The business activities are carried out through China.
Executives
Chen Xue Ping Executives
Yu Long Executives
Lai Ning Chang Director
Li Chao Bo Supervisors
Jiang Yi Director
Xu Ji Ping Director
Ma Kai Directors, executives
Hou Xun Tian Director
Tian Yan Directors, executives
Xu Jian Fei Executives
Shi Ge Yan Executives
Rao Zhi Long Directors, executives
Liu Jie Executives

Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co (SZSE:000893) Headlines

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