Syneos Health (Syneos Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Syneos Health Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Syneos Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Syneos Health (Syneos Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Syneos Health Inc (NAS:SYNH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1030 Sync Street, Morrisville, NC, USA, 27560-5468

Website

https://www.syneoshealth.com

Syneos is a global contract research and outsourced commercialization organization that provides services to pharmaceutical and biotechnology firms. Its clinical solutions segment offers early- to late-stage clinical trial support that ranges from specialized staffing models to strategic partnerships that oversee nearly all aspects of a drug program, while the company's commercialization solutions includes outsourced sales, consulting, public relations, and advertising services.

Executives

Michael J. Bonello	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4130 PARKLAKE AVENUE, SUITE 400, RALEIGH NY 27612
Stanford Rudnick	officer: See remarks	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560-5468
Christian Tucat	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560-5468
Michael Lee Brooks	officer: See remarks	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Jonathan Olefson	officer: General Counsel & Corp Secty	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Michelle Keefe	officer: Pres., Commercial Solutions	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH,INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Jason M. Meggs	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Donna Hildebrand Kralowetz	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Matthew E. Monaghan	director	ONE INVACARE WAY, ELYRIA OH 44035
Alfonso G Zulueta	director	4925 INDIANA AVE, LISLE IL 60532
Barbara W. Bodem	director	C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Linda S Harty	director	MEDTRONIC PLC, 710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY NE, LC-150, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Alistair Macdonald	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
David S. Wilkes	director	ONE BAXTER PARKWAY, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Advent International Corp/ma	10 percent owner	800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199