Superior Industries International (Superior Industries International) Predictability Rank

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What is Superior Industries International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Superior Industries International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Superior Industries International (Superior Industries International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Superior Industries International Inc (NYSE:SUP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SPD:Germany SPD:Germany

Address

26600 Telegraph Road, Suite 400, Southfield, MI, USA, 48033

Website

https://www.supind.com

Superior Industries International Inc is engaged in the design and manufacture of aluminum wheels for sale to OEMs in North America and Europe and to the aftermarket in Europe. The company's OEM aluminum wheels are primarily sold for factory installation on vehicle models manufactured by BMW (including Mini), Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, AMG, Smart), Ford, GM, Honda, Jaguar-Land Rover, Lucid Motors, Mazda, Nissan, PSA, Renault, Stellantis, Subaru, Suzuki, Toyota, VW Group (Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, Porsche, Bentley) and Volvo. It sells aluminum wheels to the European aftermarket under the brands' ATS, RIAL, ALUTEC and ANZIO.

Executives

Mill Road Capital Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O MILL ROAD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 328 PEMBERWICK ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06831
Timothy Trenary	officer: Chief Financial Officer	33583 WOODWARD AVENUE, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Parveen Kakar	officer: Senior Vice President
Kevin Martin Burke	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	26600 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SUITE 400, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Michael Hatzfeld	officer: VP Finance & Corp Controller	C/O SUPERIOR INDUSTRIES INTERNATIONAL, 26600 TELEGRAPH RD., STE 400, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
David M Sherbin	officer: Senior VP and General Counsel	4181 AO SOUTHMOOR LANE, WEST BLOOMFIELD MI 48323
Andreas Meyer	officer: SVP, President Europe	26600 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SUITE 400, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Raynard D. Benvenuti	director	6210 ARDREY KELL ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Jon Winkelried	10 percent owner	C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Tpg Gp A, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Thomas E Lynch	10 percent owner	382 GREENWICH AVE, SUITE ONE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mill Road Capital Iii Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O MILL ROAD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 328 PEMBERWICK ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06831
Michael Dorah	officer: SVP, President North America	C/O DELPHI TECHNOLOGIES PLC, 1 ANGEL COURT, 10TH FLOOR, LONDON X0 EC2R 7HJ
Majdi Abulaban	officer: CEO	C/O DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE LLP, 5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Troy W Ford	officer: Interim CFO	26600 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SUITE 400, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033