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Sundance Strategies (Sundance Strategies) Predictability Rank


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What is Sundance Strategies Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sundance Strategies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sundance Strategies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sundance Strategies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Sundance Strategies (Sundance Strategies) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Sundance Strategies Inc (OTCPK:SUND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FGF NDEV BRK.A XTER:ALV XSWX:ZURN XPAR:CS AIG MIL:G TSX:SLF ACGL OHEL:SAMPO XSWX:SLHN XTER:TLX LSE:AV. BSP:BBSE3 OCSE:TRYG EQH XAMS:NN XAMS:AGN XAMS:ASRNL
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4626 North 300 West, Suite No. 365, Provo, UT, USA, 84604
Website
https://www.sundancestrategies.com
Sundance Strategies Inc is a specialty financial services company. It is engaged in the business of purchasing or acquiring life insurance policies and residual interests in or financial products tied to life insurance policies and residual interests involving life insurance policies and financial products. The company focuses on the purchase and sale of net insurance benefit contracts (NIB) based on life insurance policies.
Executives
Randall F. Pearson director, officer: President 770 S. PALISADE DR., OREM UT 84097
Kraig Higginson director 2296 NORTH 470 E, PROVO UT 84604
Matthew G. Pearson officer: Chief Operating Officer P.O. BOX 680518, PARK CITY UT 84068
Ty D. Mattingly director, 10 percent owner 22 WEST 620 SOUTH, OREM UT 84058
Glenn S. Dickman director, officer: Secretary 13559 TUSCALEE WAY, DRAPER UT 84020
Mitchell D. Burton 10 percent owner 1343 S. 1100 E., OREM UT 84097
Jonathan Craig Moffitt director, officer: President and CEO 4626 NORTH 300 WEST, SUITE 375, PROVO UT 84604
Del R. Higginson director, officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer 11148 NORTH SUNFLOWER DRIVE, HIGHLAND UT 84003
Kelly Trimble 10 percent owner 4685 HIGHLAND DRIVE, SUITE #207, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84117
Mark C Burdge director, 10 percent owner 815 EAST OSMOND LANE, PROVO UT 84604
Howard Abrams director, officer: CEO and CFO
Mark Sansom other: No longer a 10% holder 4061 POWER CIRCLE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84124
Globe Energy Technologies, Llc 10 percent owner 5055 N. EDGEWOOD DR, PO BOX 222, PROVE UT 84604
Lance Musicant director, 10 percent owner, officer: President,CFO, CEO 5017 WILD BUFFALO AVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89131
Allen Musicant director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice President 5017 WILD BUFFALO AVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89131