Sun Communities (Sun Communities) Predictability Rank

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What is Sun Communities Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sun Communities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sun Communities Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sun Communities (Sun Communities) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Sun Communities Inc (NYSE:SUI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SCZ:Germany S2UI34:Brazil

Address

27777 Franklin Road, Suite 200, Southfield, MI, USA, 48034

Website

https://www.suncommunities.com

Sun Communities is a residential REIT that focuses on owning manufactured housing, residential vehicle communities, and marinas. The company currently owns a portfolio of 670 properties, which includes 353 manufactured housing communities, 182 residential vehicle communities, and 135 marina properties. Sun targets owning properties that are desirable as second homes or vacation properties with nearly 50% of the portfolio located in either Florida or Michigan near major bodies of water.

Executives

Baxter Underwood	officer: CEO - Safe Harbor Marinas, LLC	14785 PRESTON RD, 9TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75254
Marc Farrugia	officer: EVP & Chief Admin. Officer	27777 FRANKLIN RD., SUITE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Jeff Blau	director
Bruce Thelen	officer: EVP	27777 FRANKLIN RD., STE. 200, SOUTHFIEL MI 48034
Clunet R Lewis	director	27777 FRANKLIN ROAD, SUITE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Fernando Castro-caratini	officer: EVP, CFO, Sec. & Treas.	27777 FRANKLIN RD., SUITE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
John Bandini Mclaren	officer: EVP & CFO	27777 FRANKLIN ROAD, SUITE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Stephanie W Bergeron	director	27777 FRANKLIN ROAD, STE 200, SUN COMMUNITIES, INC, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Aaron Weiss	officer: EVP, Corp. Strat. & Bus. Dev.	27777 FRANKLIN RD., SUITE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Gary A Shiffman	director, officer: Chrmn and CEO	27777 FRANKLIN ROAD, STE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Karen Dearing	officer: EVP, CFO, Sec. & Treasurer	27777 FRANKLIN ROAD, SUITE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Tonya Allen	director	2777 FRANKLIN RD., STE. 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Ronald A Klein	director	235 EAST MAIN STREET, MIDLAND MI 48640
Jonathan Colman	officer: EVP	27777 FRANKLIN ROAD, SUITE 200, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Brian M Hermelin	director	2064 D STREET, BELLEVILLE MI 48111