Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III (Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III) Predictability Rank

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What is Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III (Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III Ltd (NYSE:STRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4301 50th Street NW, Suite 300 PMB 1044, Washington, DC, USA, 20016

Website

Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III Ltd is a blank check company.

Executives

Robert Reid	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
James Lanzone	director	3000 CLEARVIEW WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Kenneth A Fox	director
Spencer M Rascoff	director	212 26TH STREET, UNIT 317, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Jan Singer	director	2 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Alexander Klabin	director	C/O ANCIENT MANAGEMENT LP, 512 WEST 22ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Michael S. Clifton	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SUPERNOVA PARTNERS ACQUISITION CO., 4520 DEXTER STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20007
Gregg Renfrew	director	C/O SUPERNOVA PARTNERS ACQUISITION CO., 4520 DEXTER STREET, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20007
Supernova Partners Iii Llc	10 percent owner	4301 50TH STREET, N.W., SUITE 300, PMB 1044, WASHINGTON DC 20007
Rajeev Singh	director	6222 185TH AVENUE NE, REDMOND WA 98052

Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III (Supernova Partners Acquisition Co III) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Supernova Partners Acquisition Company III, Ltd. Receives Expected Notice From The New York Stock Exchange Regarding Delayed Quarterly Report

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 06-02-2021