What is Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund (Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
225 Franklin Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund Inc is a closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek growth of capital and current income. The fund invests in various sectors such as consumer discretionary, industrials, information technology and telecommunication services. Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC serves as the investment manager to the fund.
Executives
| Janet Carrig |
director |
ONE SOUTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 3200, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Douglas A Hacker |
director |
P O BOX 66100-WHQLD, CHICAGO IL 60666 |
| Daniel Beckman |
officer: Senior Vice President |
225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Gene R Tannuzzo |
other: Man Dir/GL HD of FI Issuer IA |
225 FRANKLIN ST., BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Christopher O. Petersen |
officer: Vice President and Secretary |
5228 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474 |
| Brian M. Engelking |
other: Dir.,VP & CFO of Issuer's IA |
225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Sandra Yeager |
director |
225 FRANKLIN ST., BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Jonathan C Cleasby |
other: Dir., VP & CFO of Issuer's IA |
225 FRANKLIN ST., BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Brian J Gallagher |
director |
225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Pamela G Carlton |
director |
901 S. MARQUETTE AVENUE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402 |
| Anthony M Santomero |
director |
RENAISSANCE HOUSE, 8-20 EAST BROADWAY, PEMBROKE D0 HM 19 |
| Joseph Beranek |
officer: Treasurer of Issuer |
225 FRANKLIN ST, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Scott E Couto |
other: EVP/Head N.Am. for Issuer's IA |
225 FRANKLIN ST, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Vimal Patel |
other: Portfolio Manager of Issuer |
50606 AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL CENTER, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55474 |
| Shekhar Pramanick |
other: Portfolio Manager of Issuer |
225 FRANKLIN STREET, BOSTON MA 02110 |
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