What is Stem Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Stem Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Stem (STEM) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 California Street, 14th Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111
Stem is a provider of energy storage systems. The company bundles third-party hardware with its proprietary Athena software to provide customers a turnkey solution. Stem sells its solutions to commercial and industrial customers as well as independent power producers and renewable developers. Its solutions help customers maximize renewable energy generation and help build a cleaner and more resilient grid. In 2022, the company acquired AlsoEnergy, a provider of solar asset management software.
Executives
| Rahul Shukla |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
100 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Michael James Carlson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
100 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| David S Buzby |
director |
|
| Alan Russo |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
100 ROLLINS ROAD, MILLBRAE CA 94030 |
| Matthew Tappin |
officer: President, Asset Management |
100 CALIFORNIA STREET, 14TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Lisa L Troe |
director |
12181 BLUFF CREEK DRIVE, 4TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90094 |
| Saul R. Laureles |
officer: Chief Legal Officer |
5599 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| John Eugene Carrington |
director, officer: CEO and Director |
350 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 600, TEMPE AZ 85281 |
| William John Bush |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
539 BRYANT STREET, SUITE 403, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107 |
| Kim Homenock |
officer: Chief People Officer |
100 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Robert Schaefer |
officer: President, AlsoEnergy |
100 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Larsh Johnson |
officer: Chief Technical Officer |
100 ROLLINS RD, MILLBRAE CA 94030 |
| Prakesh Patel |
officer: Chief Strategy Officer |
100 ROLLINS ROAD, MILLBRAE CA 94030 |
| Adam Daley |
director |
C/O MAGNETAR CAPITAL LLC, 1603 ORRINGTON AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201 |
| Anil Tammineedi |
director |
100 ROLLINS RD, MILLBRAE CA 94030 |
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