Steel Connect (Steel Connect) Predictability Rank

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What is Steel Connect Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Steel Connect Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Steel Connect (Steel Connect) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Steel Connect Inc (NAS:STCN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CGO:Germany

Address

590 Madison Avenue, New York, DE, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.steelconnectinc.com

Steel Connect Inc is a diversified holding company. The company's operating segment include Direct Marketing and Supply Chain. It generates maximum revenue from the Direct Marketing segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in China; Netherlands, and others. The company serves clients in various industries including consumer electronics, communications, computing, software, storage, and retail industries.

Executives

Steel Partners Holdings L.p.	other: See Explanation of Responses	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joseph Richards Martin	director	C/O LOUISIANA-PACIFIC CORPORATION, 414 UNION STREET, SUITE 2000, NASHVILLE TN 37219
Ryan O'herrin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-8547
Webfinancial Holding Corp	director, 10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wf Asset Corp.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gary Tankard	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS LP, 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jason Wong	officer: Chief Financial Officer	590 MADISON AVENUE, FLOOR 32, C/O STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS LP, NEW YORK NY 10022
Renata Simril	director	5055 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 500, LOS ANGELES CA 90036
Fawaz Khalil	officer: CEO, ModusLink Corporation	C/O STEEL CONNECT, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 170, WALTHAM MA 02451
John Ashe	officer: CEO,IWCO Direct Holdings, Inc.	C/O STEEL CONNECT, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 170, WALTHAM MA 02451
Maria Molland	director	1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 170, WALTHAM MA 02451
Joseph B Sherk	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O UNITED RENTALS INC, FIVE GREENWICH OFFICE PARK, GREENWICH CT 06830
Douglas Woodworth	officer: Chief Financial Officer	STEEL PARTNERS HOLDINGS L.P., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steel Excel Inc.	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Philip E. Lengyel	director	C/O MODUSLINK GLOBAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 170, WALTHAM MA 02451