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SRM Entertainment (SRM Entertainment) Predictability Rank


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What is SRM Entertainment Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SRM Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SRM Entertainment Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SRM Entertainment (SRM Entertainment) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » SRM Entertainment Inc (NAS:SRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
DSHK PRKA SPGC DOGZ FGH KENS NLS BWMG BTDG CNXA TSE:4661 HKSE:02020 TSE:7832 TSE:7309 HKSE:02331 MAT HAS PLNT TSE:7951 LSE:GAW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1061 E Indiantown Road, Suite 110, Jupiter, FL, USA, 33477
Website
https://www.srmentertainment.com
SRM Entertainment Inc is a trusted toy and souvenir designer and developer, selling into the world's largest theme parks and entertainment venues. SRM has developed, manufactured, and supplied the entertainment and amusement park industry with exclusive products that are often only available to consumers inside SRM's worldwide customer bases venues such as Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, Universal Studios, SeaWorld, Six Flags, Great Wolf Lodge, Dollywood, and Merlin Entertainment.
Executives
Hans Haywood director 1061 E. INDIANTOWN ROAD, SUITE 110, JUPITER FL 33477
Brian John director, officer: Secretary 1500 GATEWAY BLVD, SUITE 220, BOYNTON BEACH FL 33426
Gary L Herman director 720 FIFTH AVE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Douglas O Mckinnon officer: Chief Financial Officer 2104 RIDGE PLAZA DR, CASTLE ROCK CO 80108
Christopher Melton director C/O SG BLOCKS, INC., 400 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 16C, NEW YORK NY 10017
Richard A Miller director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1500 GATEWAY BLVD, SUITE 220, BOYNTON BEACH FL 33426
Jupiter Wellness, Inc. 10 percent owner 1061 E. INDIANTOWN RD., STE. 110, JUPITER FL 33477
Taft Bryan Flittner officer: President 1129 WILKINSON STREET, ORLANDO FL 32803
Deborah Lynn Mcdaniel-hand officer: VP of Production Development 1425 WAKULLA WAY, ORLANDO FL 32839